DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/15 11:12
Grains All Higher at Midday
Trade is broadly firmer at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 100 points higher. The
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 25 lower. Energies are
weaker, with crude 0.20 lower. Livestock trade is firmer with hogs leading.
Precious metals are firmer with gold up 8.00.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade following soybeans
higher and testing the next level of resistance. South America crop progress
should remain uneventful in the near term. Ethanol margins remain under
pressure for producers with ethanol futures firming with corn this week, moving
back to the higher end of the range. Corn basis will be supported by ongoing
weather issues nearby with Gulf offers struggling along with logistics issues
building with the river system to see more stress from melting snow along with
poor road conditions. Early planting is going in the south as well with weather
concerns likely to build in the north into March with flooding the main concern
with the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers seeing big inflows. On the May chart
support is the 10-day at $3.69, with the next level of resistance the 20-day at
Soybean trade is 6 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade still working to
consolidate above $9.00 on the May contract with better short covering
developing. Meal is 2.50 to 3.50 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher.
Even with the final summit delayed, it does look like trade progress has been
scored in regards to intellectual property. South America weather should
maintain the recent pattern in the coming days with Brazil harvest moving along
and normal progress in Argentina. Crush margins remain strong overall with meal
still holding $300 with record February crush expected today. On the May chart
support is at the $8.89 1/2 low printed Tuesday with resistance at the $9.01
10-day moving average, which we are above at midday, with the 20-day at $9.10
the next level up.
Wheat trade is 4 to 5 cents higher with active trade expected into the
weekend, with the winter wheats looking to score good weekly gains and
consolidate the reversal. Spreads are pretty steady this morning. There has
been more talk of Ukraine running out of exportable near term supplies as well.
Cooler than normal weather will keep wheat development slow on the plains, and
spring wheat planting likely to start slow this year. Wheat basis varies widely
on product and location. On the May Kansas City chart, support is low at $4.18
3/4 fresh low with resistance at the 10-day at $4.36, which we are back above
at midday, with the 20-day at 4.46 the next round up.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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